Bihar bypolls: Stakes are high for all parties, with an eye on 2025 assembly elections

The bypolls in Bihar on Wednesday will be closely observed as the elections will set the stage for the assembly polls in 2025, with the prospect of new political alignments and strategies relying heavily on the outcome on November 23.
Of the four seats going to polls on Wednesday, three were held by the I.N.D.I.A bloc – two by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (Belaganj and Ramgarh) and one by the CPI-ML (Tarari), while one was held by the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) partner HAM (Imamganj).
This time, the Bharatiya Janata Party is contesting from two seats (Tarari and Ramgarh), while allies Janata Dal (United) and Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) are contesting from Belaganj and Imamganj, respectively. The NDA has put all its might to win all four, with all state leaders campaigning hard and predicting a sweep.
However, if the previous track record is any indicator and the new dynamics with the entry of Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraj Party, it is not going to be easy. If Kishor succeeds in making the contest triangular, it could alter the equations. But it remains to be seen if at all it would have an impact on Bihar’s highly polarised politics.
Belaganj has been the pocket borough of the RJD for decades, with Jehanabad MP Surendra Yadav winning eight times from here and this time fielding his son Vishwanath Yadav. RJD has campaigned vigorously, led by party supremo Lalu Prasad. JD(U) has also fielded a Yadav, former MLC Manorama Devi, who is the widow of late Bindeshwari Prasad Yadav. The Jan Suraj candidate is a local former panchayat head Mohammad Azad, who also contested elections in 2005 and 2010.
Ramgarh has also been a bastion of the RJD since 1990, represented four times by state party chief Jagdanand Singh and in 2020 by his elder son Sudhakar Yadav. This time, the party fielded Jagdanand Singh’s younger son. BJP has won here only once, in 2015, and the party has fielded same candidate Ashok Kumar Singh. Jan Suraj has fielded Sushil Kunar Kushwaha, who belongs to a caste with a sizable population in the constituency. The Bahujan Samaj Party has fielded Satish Kumar alias Pintu Yadav, who could split votes in his pockets of influence.
The Tarari assembly seat was earlier with the CPI-ML and the BJP has put up Vishal Prashant, son of strongman former MLA Sunil Pandey. Pandey and his son joined the BJP from the LJP just ahead of the bye-election. He had won the seat in 2010 and in 2020 lost to CPI-ML’s Sudama Prasad but came second with 63,000 votes as an Independent, relegating the BJP to the third spot. PerhapsPandey’s clout in the area got him a place in the BJP and his son a ticket. From Jan Suraj, local Kiran Singh is in the fray.
In Imamganj, Union minister Jitan Ram Manjhi’s daughter-in-law and Bihar minister Santosh Kumar Suman’s wife Deepa Manjhi is the HAM candidate. She is banking on her family legacy as the RJD has never won from this seat. This time, however, the contest could get triangular. While RJD has fielded Raushan Kumar Manjhi, Jan Suraj has fielded locally popular Jitendra Paswan. Like Belaganj, where two Yadavs are against each other, Imamganj will witness a fight between two Manjhis, and Jan Suraj hopes to benefit from it.
The results of the bye-elections for the four seats could alter the arithmetic in the legislative assembly ahead of next year’s state polls. At present, the BJP with 78 seats is the largest party in the assembly, followed closely by the RJD with 77 seats. If the RJD is able to retain both its seats in Ramgarh and Belaganj, it could reach 79 seats to be one more than the BJP, but if BJP wins one or two seats it can equal or maintain its lead. For the JD(U), it will be nothing but a psychological advantage.
Social analyst professor NK Choudhary said that the bye-election results could have wider ramifications and start a new wave of political churning. “The winners will not have even a one-year tenure, but what is more important is that it will give a sense of people’s mood ahead of state polls. For Jan Suraj, it will be crucial. How people take him will determine the future course. If people show even a semblance of acceptance for Jan Suraj, that will be crucial in state politics, which has revolved around Lalu Prasad and Nitish Kumar since 1990,” Choudhary said.
Choudhary said Muslim voters could also play a decisive role in the bypolls.
“The Waqf issue has been brought alive, with the All India Muslim Personal Law Board (AIMPLB) general secretary asking (chief minister) Nitish Kumar to oppose the bill and the RJD attacking the Bihar CM for seeking support of Muslims while backing the Waqf bill. On the other hand, the Jan Suraj is trying to convince Muslim voters that the RJD was using them. He has also fielded a Muslim candidate in Belaganj. Time will tell how the results shape up, but it will certainly have an echo in the months to come,” he added.